India’s Population at a Crossroads
India’s population stands at a critical juncture, from which two divergent paths emerge. One path can transform the country into a soft superpower; the other may pull it into a vortex of persistent crises.
The moment I step into India from Norway, it feels as though I have moved from a human desert into a human ocean. The demographic landscape undergoes a complete reversal. Where European streets are dominated by the slow gait of the elderly, Indian roads teem with youthful energy. In places where even financial incentives fail to attract workers, here one finds oneself negotiating with dozens of eager hands for a single task. Across India, from small neighborhood shops to glittering malls, commerce flourishes. Shops are crowded with customers, markets pulse with activity. While primary schools in Europe are being shut down due to a shortage of children, India witnesses the relentless opening of new schools and colleges. Coaching institutes compete fiercely with one another to attract aspirants.
Today, more than sixty-five percent of India’s population is of working age—the highest proportion in the world. This is India’s greatest strength, commonly described as the demographic dividend. India stands at a crossroads where, like Japan once did, it can harness this population to become an economic powerhouse. Conversely, a few missteps could entangle the nation in a vicious cycle of unemployment, healthcare inadequacies, and environmental degradation.
The global gaze is fixed upon India’s vast population between the ages of fifteen and sixty. This favorable ratio is expected to persist for the next three to four decades, implying no shortage of workers, earners, builders, or innovators. Estimates suggest that this window of opportunity may remain open until around 2055.
A larger workforce will mean higher productivity. Female participation in the labor force will increase. People will earn more, consume more, save, and invest. With comparatively fewer dependents—both children and the elderly—public expenditure on welfare may decline, allowing greater capital investment in infrastructure and industry. Given the scale of India’s workforce and consumer base, large multinational corporations may find strong incentives to establish operations here. Not only India, but other countries too could benefit from India’s labor and skill pool. The inflow of foreign capital is likely to intensify, and India’s capacity to exert geopolitical influence may grow. This is what international media often describe as “soft superpower” potential.
Japan offers an instructive example. It entered a similar demographic phase around 1955 and exited it roughly two decades ago. During this period, despite being devastated by war, Japan achieved rapid economic growth. However, India differs profoundly from Japan. India’s population is nearly twelve times larger, and the distribution of population, education, healthcare, political structures, cultural norms, work ethics, and social discipline are vastly different. The Japanese model, therefore, cannot be transplanted wholesale onto India.
A critical concern is that India’s expanding youth population is concentrated disproportionately in states with fragile socio-economic conditions. Only when adequate education, healthcare, and skill development reach these relatively poorer regions can this population become truly productive. Otherwise, the demographic dividend risks degenerating into a demographic liability marked by mass unemployment and social unrest.
The world is rapidly advancing toward a digital era dominated by artificial intelligence and automation. Many traditional jobs are likely to disappear or undergo radical transformation. Even otherwise, technological progress tends to reduce the demand for manual labor. When machines replace human effort—for example, in construction—new roles emerge for trained operators, leaving the uneducated and unskilled increasingly marginalized. Agricultural mechanization, too, is inevitable and will significantly affect rural populations dependent on traditional farming. This is where institutions such as the National Skill Development Corporation assume critical importance, as they attempt to equip young people with relevant education and skills.
The migration of populations toward cities in search of employment also requires careful management. Ideally, people should find sustainable livelihoods where they already reside. Encouragingly, employment opportunities are gradually increasing not only in metropolitan centers but also in second- and third-tier cities. Even rural areas are witnessing new income-generating avenues. Yet the relentless rush toward big cities continues unabated.
Equally essential is ensuring that this working-age population remains healthy and productive over the next three to four decades. At present, India ranks poorly on the Human Development Index. Urban pollution, rising heat and humidity, and landslides in hilly regions are increasingly threatening livelihoods. While healthcare initiatives such as Ayushman Bharat have expanded access to medical services, it is imperative that healthcare infrastructure keeps pace with population growth. Only if environmental conditions remain livable and people remain physically capable of working can sustained economic and social progress be achieved.
Over the past decade, a nuanced understanding has emerged: while population growth poses undeniable challenges, a specific demographic composition can yield long-term advantages. In contrast to most Western nations, where aging populations dominate, India finds itself in a reverse situation. Human capital has emerged as India’s most valuable asset. It must be nurtured with care—through employment opportunities, access to basic amenities, quality education, robust healthcare, and reduced pollution. Only then can this population truly contribute to nation-building.
— Praveen Kumar Jha
Writer and Physician, Kongsberg, Norway
(This article was published in Rajasthan Patrika in July 2024.)
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प्रवीण कुमार झा कथेतर रुचि के लेखक हैं। गिरमिटिया इतिहास पर उनकी शोधपरक पुस्तक ‘कुली लाइंस’ चर्चित रही। संगीत इतिहास पर आधारित पुस्तक ‘वाह उस्ताद’ को कलिंग लिट्रेचर फ़ेस्टिवल 2021 ने ‘बुक ऑफ द यर’ से सम्मानित किया। उन्होंने इतिहास पुस्तकों के अतिरिक्त लघु यात्रा-संस्मरण भी लिखे हैं और उनके स्तंभ प्रमुख पत्रिकाओं में प्रकाशित होते रहे हैं। प्रवीण का जन्म बिहार में हुआ और वह भारत के भिन्न-भिन्न स्थानों से गुजरते हुए अमेरिका और यूरोप में रहे। वह सम्प्रति नॉर्वे में विशेषज्ञ चिकित्सक हैं।
Praveen Kumar Jha is a writer of non-fiction. His research-based book on Girmitiya history, Kuli Lines, has received wide recognition. His book on music history, Wah Ustad, was honored as Book of the Year at the Kalinga Literature Festival 2021.
In addition to history books, he has also written short travel memoirs, and his columns have been published in leading magazines. Praveen was born in Bihar and has lived in various parts of India before spending time in the United States and Europe. He is currently working as a specialist physician in Norway.
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